Gold, cash and markets: how the same starting sum can change.
Enter a lump sum and a period to see how it would grow, or fall, under a set of clearly stated assumptions. Each option is shown as a range — including scenarios where the value goes down — so you can see the risk, not just an optimistic outcome.
Illustration calculator
Physical gold
Cash savings
Broad equity market reference
Assumes a single lump sum invested once, compounding annually at the assumed rates below, with no contributions and no withdrawals. Charges, premiums, spreads, storage, insurance, delivery and tax are excluded, and figures are not adjusted for inflation. Real outcomes will differ, sometimes materially. Nothing here is personalised to you.
Assumptions — stated in full
Every figure above comes from the annual rates in this table and nothing else. They are illustrative inputs chosen to show a plausible range. They are not historical returns, not back-tested results, not market data, and not forecasts. You are welcome to substitute your own figures.
| Option | Lower scenario | Central scenario | Higher scenario |
|---|---|---|---|
| Physical gold | −8% per year | +4% per year | +9% per year |
| Cash savings | 0% per year | +3% per year | +4.5% per year |
| Broad equity market reference | −7% per year | +5% per year | +9% per year |
What the calculator includes
- A single lump sum, invested once.
- Annual compounding over the period selected.
- Three scenarios per option: lower, central and higher.
What it leaves out
- Dealer premiums, buy/sell spreads and commissions.
- Storage, insurance, delivery and shipping costs.
- Fund or platform charges on any market investment.
- Tax of any kind, in any jurisdiction.
- Inflation — the figures are nominal, not real.
- Your own buying and selling timing.
How to read this comparison fairly
The three columns are shown under identical assumptions, but they are not equivalent things and should not be read as a like-for-like league table. Each carries a different kind of risk, and none is suitable for everyone.
Physical gold
- A tangible asset you can hold, with no counterparty.
- Its price can fall, and has done so over extended periods.
- Physical coins normally trade at a premium when you buy and a discount when you sell, and the gap reduces returns.
- Graded and collectible coins may be valued on rarity and condition as well as metal content, and that market can be illiquid.
- Storage and insurance are real, ongoing costs.
Cash savings and market references
- Cash savings are typically capital-stable in nominal terms, but may not keep pace with inflation, so their real value can fall.
- A “broad equity market reference” is a comparator, not a product. It cannot be bought as shown, and actual funds carry charges and tracking differences.
- Equity markets can fall sharply and can stay below their previous level for years.
- Tax treatment differs by asset, by wrapper and by jurisdiction.
Nothing on this page suggests that any of these options is suitable for you, or that one is better than another. Suitability depends on your circumstances, objectives, time horizon and tolerance for loss.
Important information
No advice and no offer. This page is general information and illustration only. It is not personal financial advice, investment advice, tax advice or legal advice, it is not a recommendation or a personal recommendation, and it is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell anything. It is not a financial promotion and it is not an invitation or inducement to invest. Hartco Aurum Ltd is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and does not carry on regulated investment business. If you need advice, consult an adviser authorised in your own jurisdiction.
No forecast and no guarantee. The rates used are assumptions, not predictions. No representation is made that any outcome shown will be achieved. Historical or hypothetical figures have inherent limitations and do not represent actual trading or actual results. Prices of gold and other assets can fall as well as rise, and you may lose money.
Tax. Tax rules differ by jurisdiction and by individual circumstance, and may change. Any tax points mentioned anywhere on this website are general and must not be relied upon; we do not provide tax advice. In the UK, certain legal-tender gold coins may be treated as exempt from Capital Gains Tax for UK residents, but whether that applies to you depends on your own position and current law. In the United States, the tax treatment of precious metals and collectibles differs and can be materially less favourable than other assets. Take your own advice.
United States visitors. This page is provided for general information. It is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, commodity interest or investment product, and it is not investment, financial, tax or legal advice. Hartco Aurum Ltd is a UK company; it is not registered as a broker-dealer or investment adviser with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or any state regulator, and it does not deal in leveraged, margined, financed or option-based precious-metals contracts. Any transaction would be an outright purchase of physical metal or a graded coin. Precious metals involve risk, including possible loss of the amount paid. Figures shown are hypothetical, are based on assumptions you can see on this page, and do not represent results any person has achieved.
Our commercial interest. You should be aware that we buy and sell physical gold and graded coins. We therefore have a commercial interest in the subject of this page, and the illustration should be read with that in mind.
Company information. Hartco Aurum Ltd, company number 16390802, registered in England and Wales. Registered/business address: Devonshire House, Elmfield Road, Bromley BR1 1LT. Contact: hello@hartcoaurum.co.uk · 0204 571 8753.
See also our Terms & Conditions, Authenticity & Grading, AML & Verification, Returns & Refunds and Complaints pages.